Agri Picks Daily Technical Report 1st March 2019 Commodities

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All the commodities in the edible oil portfolio extended its weakness yesterday as well. The March contract of soybean in NCDEX hit seven month low in sync with weakness in U.S CBOT soybean prices on back of higher supply of new crop in Brazil.

The most active mustard seed futures traded settled lower due to the expectation of higher output during this rabi season. India's mustard output for 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) is seen at 8.4 mln in, higher than last year's 8.3 mln in, according to the second advance estimates released by the farm ministry.

Contracts of refined soy oil fell on the NCDEX and CPO in MCX fell yesterday due to lack of lustier demand in the spot markets along with ample stocks in the domestic market. A cut in base import price on edible oils also weighed on sentiments. Exports from Malaysia were estimated to have fallen 14.5% on month to 1.3 mln in February, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said.

Farmers across the country planted mustard over 6.94 mln ha as of Thursday, up 3.4% from a year ago, according to farm ministry data. The acreage has already topped the five-year average of 6.13 mln ha for the entire season as most of the sowing is over.

As per the recent ministry report, Rabi Oilseeds crop normal sowing area for 2018/19 is slightly down by 0.6% to 8.04 million Ha. in India as compared to 8.98 million Ha. in 2017-18. So far, farmers have covered total 8.36 million Ha.

As per sources, Soybean production of India may rise by 38% to 11.48 million tons this year against 8.36 million tonnes in last year record as supported by better yield, the favorable weather condition in the major soybean crop-growing states like Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan.

India's soymeal exports nearly doubled on year to 210,166 in, according to data released by The Solvent Extractors' Association of India. Soyoil exports during the period were at 2,092.0 in, up from 1,218.5 in the previous year. The export destinations were mainly Bhutan, Ghana, Nepal, and Australia.

India's vegetable oil imports rose 11% on year to 1.21 mln in, as per data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India. The overall imports in the first two months of oil year beginning November were largely unchanged at 2.35 mln in. Upbeat shipments of crude palm oil, refined bleached deodorized palm olein, and crude degummed soy oil lifted total imports in December.

Brazil's food statistics agency cut the country's soybean production estimate to 115.3 mln in for 2018-19 from its January forecast of 118.80 mln tn, due to severe drought conditions in key growing regions.

As per USDA recent report, China exported 2.603 million tonnes of soybeans during the 2018/19 season. The soybeans will be delivered to China during the current marketing year, which ends on Aug. 31,2019. Total 274,000 tonnes of U.S. soybean has been shipped to unknown destination also. China bought 60% of the 2017 U.S. soybean crop so far which is lower than previous year record due to trade tension between U.S and China.

As per Agribusiness consultancy AgRural, Brazil has harvested 36% of the planted soybean area for 2018/19 season. Farmers finished 19% higher crop harvesting from previous year record supported by dry and hot weather. Beans quality are good as of now. Brazil may produce Soybean crop at 112.5 million tonnes in 2018/19 which is lower than its previous forecast i.e. 116.9 million tonnes due to continue dry spell in the country.

Inventories of palm oil in Malaysia rose by 6.9% on month to 3.22 million tones in December, while those of crude palm oil was up 8.4% at 1.94 million tonnes, according to a monthly report released by MPOB.

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