#Share #Market #Tips - No fireworks: #Sensex gave positive #return only 5 times during #Diwali month in last 10 years

The Sensex gained the most in October 2011, rising almost 10 percent for the month, followed by October 2017. The index rose over 5 percent.

You can choose to look at this glass either half empty or half full.

In the past ten years, the Sensex gave positive returns on 50 percent occasions in the Diwali month. The data was sourced from Ace Equity.

The Sensex gained the most in October 2011, rising almost 10 percent during the month, followed by October 2017. The index rose over 5 percent. The year 2017 was a stellar one as indices had one of their best performances, gaining around 25-30 percent.

Interestingly, the index was absolutely flat in October 2013.

On the other hand, the index fell the most in October 2008 posting a negative return of over 25 percent. This was in the aftermath of the recession that followed post-Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy and led to a meltdown in global and domestic markets.

This is followed by October 2009, where the Sensex fell over 7 percent. The index fell the least in October 2016, where the index lost just about a percent.

An average of positives and negatives shows that the performance has largely been on the negative side though. An average of all negative returns shows the Sensex’s fall to be around 8 percent, while its gains stood around 5 percent.

The market in 2018 has had a tough year. Many factors were at play such as Punjab National Bank scam, fall in mid and small caps, the introduction of additional surveillance measures on select stocks, trade war tensions, crude surge, and rupee depreciation.

On a year-to-date basis, the market has fallen over 2 percent. It has wiped off all its gains from last year in the past two months. In the month preceding to Diwali (November 7, 2018), the index has already fallen around 7 percent in October.

Going forward, a heavy political calendar due to state elections and general elections will make the market move in a range, analysts at Axis Direct wrote in their report. This is likely till some clarity emerges on leadership trends at the Centre. “We would suggest investors to use the opportunity given by the correction in the market to load up on marquee growth-oriented stocks backed by proven management,” they added.

However, experts, in the long run, expect the indices to perform well. Axis Direct stated that factors such as consistent monsoon and government thrust on reforms, among others, are likely to boost the market.

IIFL, meanwhile, expects corporate results to help the market surge ahead. “In the next three years, one could see 30 percent (earnings) growth and hence, the target by next year’s Diwali for Nifty is at 15,000,” 

Disclaimer:- The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts are their own. Ripples Advisory advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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